AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 5 · Final

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings, final 17–23

NYJNYJNew York Jets17MINMINMinnesota Vikings23

Pregame first read

MIN run defense has the stronger league profile.

NYJ run game #25/32 · MIN run defense #3/32 · 98 offense / 79 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model range is based on past scoring errors; current availability is unverified.

Model spread
MIN -5.5
Model total
39
80% range (MIN margin)
+15.0 to +15.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIN passing attack#8/32NYJ pass defense#2/32
  • MIN run game#16/32NYJ run defense#21/32
  • NYJ passing attack#15/32MIN pass defense#6/32
  • NYJ run game#25/32MIN run defense#3/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NYJNew York Jets

MINMinnesota Vikings