AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 5 · Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, final 30–36

TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers30ATLATLAtlanta Falcons36

Pregame first read

TB run game has the stronger league profile.

TB run game #13/32 · ATL run defense #25/32 · 90 offense / 141 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model range is based on past scoring errors; current availability is unverified.

Model spread
TB -3.5
Model total
42
80% range (ATL margin)
-3.6 to -3.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#17/32TB pass defense#11/32
  • ATL run game#28/32TB run defense#32/32
  • TB passing attack#14/32ATL pass defense#20/32
  • TB run game#13/32ATL run defense#25/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

ATLAtlanta Falcons