2024 Week 6 · Final
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, final 23–20
Pregame first read
BUF pass defense has the stronger league profile.
NYJ passing attack #21/32 · BUF pass defense #7/32 · 204 offense / 186 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- BUF -3
- Model total
- 42.5
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -18.2 to +13.8
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingAaron RodgersNYJ294 pass yds
- RushingBreece HallNYJ113 rush yds
- ReceivingAllen LazardNYJ114 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#21/32BUF pass defense#7/32
- NYJ run game#29/32BUF run defense#23/32
- BUF passing attack#5/32NYJ pass defense#1/32
- BUF run game#8/32NYJ run defense#11/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
BUFBuffalo Bills
- Josh AllenQB · 5 games189pass yds/g
- James CookRB · 5 games61.8rush yds/g
- Khalil ShakirWR · 4 games57.5rec yds/g
- Keon ColemanWR · 5 games35rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Aaron RodgersQB · 5 games219pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 5 games39.4rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 5 games58.4rec yds/g
- Allen LazardWR · 5 games48rec yds/g