2024 Week 6 · Final
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, final 41–21
Pregame first read
HOU pass defense has the stronger league profile.
NE passing attack #30/32 · HOU pass defense #8/32 · 161 offense / 162 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- HOU -3
- Model total
- 38
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -12.4 to +14.2
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingDrake MayeNE243 pass yds
- RushingJoe MixonHOU102 rush yds
- ReceivingDeMario DouglasNE92 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#30/32HOU pass defense#8/32
- NE run game#22/32HOU run defense#29/32
- HOU passing attack#8/32NE pass defense#22/32
- HOU run game#31/32NE run defense#11/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
HOUHouston Texans
- C.J. StroudQB · 5 games277pass yds/g
- Joe MixonRB · 2 games92rush yds/g
- Nico CollinsWR · 5 games113rec yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 5 games63rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Jacoby BrissettQB · 5 games139pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 5 games71.2rush yds/g
- DeMario DouglasWR · 4 games38.3rec yds/g
- Hunter HenryTE · 5 games36rec yds/g