2024 Week 6 · Final
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears, final 16–35
Pregame first read
CHI pass defense has the stronger league profile.
JAX passing attack #24/32 · CHI pass defense #2/32 · 176 offense / 167 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- CHI -7.5
- Model total
- 44
- 80% range (CHI margin)
- -2.2 to +24.4
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingTrevor LawrenceJAX234 pass yds
- RushingD'Andre SwiftCHI91 rush yds
- ReceivingEvan EngramJAX102 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- CHI passing attack#26/32JAX pass defense#32/32
- CHI run game#23/32JAX run defense#21/32
- JAX passing attack#24/32CHI pass defense#2/32
- JAX run game#8/32CHI run defense#15/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
- Trevor LawrenceQB · 5 games220pass yds/g
- Tank BigsbyRB · 4 games68.3rush yds/g
- Brian Thomas Jr.WR · 5 games79.4rec yds/g
- Christian KirkWR · 5 games51.4rec yds/g
CHIChicago Bears
- Caleb WilliamsQB · 5 games218pass yds/g
- D'Andre SwiftRB · 5 games46.8rush yds/g
- DJ MooreWR · 5 games58.8rec yds/g
- Cole KmetTE · 5 games43.8rec yds/g