AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 6 · Final

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, final 23–16

LACLACLos Angeles Chargers23DENDENDenver Broncos16

Pregame first read

DEN pass defense has the stronger league profile.

LAC passing attack #22/32 · DEN pass defense #1/32 · 102 offense / 177 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
PK
Model total
31.5
80% range (DEN margin)
-9.6 to +17.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#27/32LAC pass defense#9/32
  • DEN run game#18/32LAC run defense#1/32
  • LAC passing attack#22/32DEN pass defense#1/32
  • LAC run game#26/32DEN run defense#9/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LACLos Angeles Chargers

DENDenver Broncos