AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 7 · Final

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts, final 10–16

MIAMIAMiami Dolphins10INDINDIndianapolis Colts16

Pregame first read

IND run defense has the stronger league profile.

MIA run game #30/32 · IND run defense #7/32 · 148 offense / 162 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
IND -5.5
Model total
40.5
80% range (IND margin)
-13.1 to +21.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • IND passing attack#11/32MIA pass defense#14/32
  • IND run game#21/32MIA run defense#10/32
  • MIA passing attack#29/32IND pass defense#18/32
  • MIA run game#30/32IND run defense#7/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

INDIndianapolis Colts