AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 7 · Final

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 16–32

NENENew England Patriots16JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars32

Pregame first read

JAX run game has the stronger league profile.

JAX run game #3/32 · NE run defense #13/32 · 103 offense / 150 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -0.5
Model total
43
80% range (JAX margin)
-18.8 to +15.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#25/32NE pass defense#28/32
  • JAX run game#3/32NE run defense#13/32
  • NE passing attack#31/32JAX pass defense#32/32
  • NE run game#26/32JAX run defense#24/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

JAXJacksonville Jaguars