2024 Week 8 · Final
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 31–26
Pregame first read
TB run game has the stronger league profile.
TB run game #3/32 · ATL run defense #24/32 · 129 offense / 138 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- TB -2.5
- Model total
- 51.5
- 80% range (TB margin)
- -17.9 to +20.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingBaker MayfieldTB330 pass yds
- RushingBijan RobinsonATL63 rush yds
- ReceivingKyle PittsATL91 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- TB passing attack#12/32ATL pass defense#26/32
- TB run game#3/32ATL run defense#24/32
- ATL passing attack#7/32TB pass defense#22/32
- ATL run game#15/32TB run defense#23/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
ATLAtlanta Falcons
- Kirk CousinsQB · 7 games261pass yds/g
- Bijan RobinsonRB · 7 games69rush yds/g
- Drake LondonWR · 7 games70.1rec yds/g
- Darnell MooneyWR · 7 games59.1rec yds/g
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · 7 games266pass yds/g
- Bucky IrvingRB · 7 games50.1rush yds/g
- Chris Godwin Jr.WR · 7 games82.3rec yds/g
- Mike EvansWR · 7 games47.9rec yds/g