AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 8 · Final

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, final 20–23

INDINDIndianapolis Colts20HOUHOUHouston Texans23

Pregame first read

IND run defense has the stronger league profile.

HOU run game #26/32 · IND run defense #4/32 · 128 offense / 149 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
PK
Model total
45
80% range (HOU margin)
-20.2 to +18.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#14/32IND pass defense#14/32
  • HOU run game#26/32IND run defense#4/32
  • IND passing attack#11/32HOU pass defense#8/32
  • IND run game#25/32HOU run defense#14/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

INDIndianapolis Colts

HOUHouston Texans