2024 Week 8 · Final
New York Jets at New England Patriots, final 22–25
Pregame first read
NYJ pass defense has the stronger league profile.
NE passing attack #31/32 · NYJ pass defense #5/32 · 183 offense / 151 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NYJ -4
- Model total
- 39
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -24.4 to +14.1
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingAaron RodgersNYJ233 pass yds
- RushingBreece HallNYJ80 rush yds
- ReceivingGarrett WilsonNYJ113 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#31/32NYJ pass defense#5/32
- NE run game#31/32NYJ run defense#12/32
- NYJ passing attack#18/32NE pass defense#28/32
- NYJ run game#29/32NE run defense#25/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
NYJNew York Jets
- Aaron RodgersQB · 7 games238pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 7 games49.7rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 7 games65.7rec yds/g
- Allen LazardWR · 7 games58.9rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 3 games180pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 6 games62.3rush yds/g
- Hunter HenryTE · 7 games44.7rec yds/g
- DeMario DouglasWR · 6 games43.2rec yds/g