AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 9 · Final

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons, final 21–27

DALDALDallas Cowboys21ATLATLAtlanta Falcons27

Pregame first read

ATL run game has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #7/32 · DAL run defense #30/32 · 128 offense / 161 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
ATL -3.5
Model total
49
80% range (ATL margin)
-14.4 to +21.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#7/32DAL pass defense#29/32
  • ATL run game#7/32DAL run defense#30/32
  • DAL passing attack#22/32ATL pass defense#23/32
  • DAL run game#22/32ATL run defense#17/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DALDallas Cowboys

ATLAtlanta Falcons