2024 Week 9 · Final
Houston Texans at New York Jets, final 13–21
Pregame first read
HOU pass defense has the stronger league profile.
NYJ passing attack #23/32 · HOU pass defense #4/32 · 213 offense / 174 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- HOU -2
- Model total
- 43
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -19.8 to +16.4
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingAaron RodgersNYJ211 pass yds
- RushingJoe MixonHOU106 rush yds
- ReceivingTank DellHOU126 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#23/32HOU pass defense#4/32
- NYJ run game#29/32HOU run defense#19/32
- HOU passing attack#10/32NYJ pass defense#10/32
- HOU run game#28/32NYJ run defense#21/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
HOUHouston Texans
- C.J. StroudQB · 8 games244pass yds/g
- Joe MixonRB · 5 games101rush yds/g
- Nico CollinsWR · 5 games113rec yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 8 games62rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Aaron RodgersQB · 8 games237pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 8 games53.5rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 8 games71.6rec yds/g
- Allen LazardWR · 7 games58.9rec yds/g