AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 9 · Final

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings, final 13–21

INDINDIndianapolis Colts13MINMINMinnesota Vikings21

Pregame first read

MIN run defense has the stronger league profile.

IND run game #24/32 · MIN run defense #2/32 · 139 offense / 101 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -3.5
Model total
45
80% range (MIN margin)
-14.4 to +21.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIN passing attack#11/32IND pass defense#20/32
  • MIN run game#26/32IND run defense#4/32
  • IND passing attack#12/32MIN pass defense#14/32
  • IND run game#24/32MIN run defense#2/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

INDIndianapolis Colts

MINMinnesota Vikings