AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 9 · Final

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, final 27–30

MIAMIAMiami Dolphins27BUFBUFBuffalo Bills30

Pregame first read

BUF run defense has the stronger league profile.

MIA run game #32/32 · BUF run defense #3/32 · 154 offense / 123 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -9.5
Model total
41.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-8.3 to +27.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#8/32MIA pass defense#11/32
  • BUF run game#3/32MIA run defense#18/32
  • MIA passing attack#27/32BUF pass defense#24/32
  • MIA run game#32/32BUF run defense#3/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

BUFBuffalo Bills