AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 9 · Final

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans, final 17–20

NENENew England Patriots17TENTENTennessee Titans20

Pregame first read

TEN run defense has the stronger league profile.

NE run game #28/32 · TEN run defense #8/32 · 115 offense / 139 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -1
Model total
42.5
80% range (TEN margin)
-18.7 to +17.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TEN passing attack#32/32NE pass defense#25/32
  • TEN run game#25/32NE run defense#24/32
  • NE passing attack#28/32TEN pass defense#17/32
  • NE run game#28/32TEN run defense#8/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

TENTennessee Titans