AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 9 · Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs, final 24–30

TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers24KCKCKansas City Chiefs30

Pregame first read

KC run game has the stronger league profile.

KC run game #4/32 · TB run defense #19/32 · 152 offense / 117 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
KC -2
Model total
49
80% range (KC margin)
-14.4 to +20.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • KC passing attack#17/32TB pass defense#26/32
  • KC run game#4/32TB run defense#19/32
  • TB passing attack#6/32KC pass defense#12/32
  • TB run game#6/32KC run defense#1/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

KCKansas City Chiefs