2025 Week 1 · Final
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, final 40–41
Pregame first read
BAL run game has the stronger league profile.
BAL run game #1/32 · BUF run defense #16/32 · 191 offense / 126 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- BAL -3.5
- Model total
- 52
- 80% range (BUF margin)
- -17.2 to +15.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingJosh AllenBUF394 pass yds
- RushingDerrick HenryBAL169 rush yds
- ReceivingZay FlowersBAL143 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- BUF passing attack#4/32BAL pass defense#1/32
- BUF run game#10/32BAL run defense#4/32
- BAL passing attack#3/32BUF pass defense#17/32
- BAL run game#1/32BUF run defense#16/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
BALBaltimore Ravens
Not enough recorded games yet.
BUFBuffalo Bills
Not enough recorded games yet.