2025 Week 1 · Final

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 10–26

CARCARCarolina Panthers10JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars26

Pregame first read

CAR run game has the stronger league profile.

CAR run game #8/32 · JAX run defense #24/32 · 126 offense / 138 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: CAR -0.5
Model total: 46.5
80% range (JAX margin): -14.4 to +18.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingTrevor LawrenceJAX178 pass yds
RushingTravis EtienneJAX143 rush yds
ReceivingTetairoa McMillanCAR68 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

JAX passing attack#15/32CAR pass defense#29/32
JAX run game#21/32CAR run defense#32/32
CAR passing attack#14/32JAX pass defense#9/32
CAR run game#8/32JAX run defense#24/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CARCarolina Panthers

Not enough recorded games yet.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

Not enough recorded games yet.