2025 Week 1 · Final

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers, final 21–27

KCKCKansas City Chiefs21LACLACLos Angeles Chargers27

Pregame first read

LAC run defense has the stronger league profile.

KC run game #21/32 · LAC run defense #8/32 · 93 offense / 123 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: LAC -0.5
Model total: 45.5
80% range (LAC margin): -13.2 to +19.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingJustin HerbertLAC318 pass yds
RushingPatrick MahomesKC57 rush yds
ReceivingMarquise BrownKC99 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

LAC passing attack#17/32KC pass defense#26/32
LAC run game#17/32KC run defense#23/32
KC passing attack#15/32LAC pass defense#8/32
KC run game#21/32LAC run defense#8/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

Not enough recorded games yet.

LACLos Angeles Chargers

Not enough recorded games yet.