2025 Week 1 · Final

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots, final 20–13

LVLVLas Vegas Raiders20NENENew England Patriots13

Pregame first read

LV run defense has the stronger league profile.

NE run game #30/32 · LV run defense #14/32 · 132 offense / 131 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: LV -0.5
Model total: 42
80% range (NE margin): -14.3 to +18.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingGeno SmithLV362 pass yds
RushingAshton JeantyLV38 rush yds
ReceivingBrock BowersLV103 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

NE passing attack#17/32LV pass defense#8/32
NE run game#30/32LV run defense#14/32
LV passing attack#23/32NE pass defense#24/32
LV run game#31/32NE run defense#23/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LVLas Vegas Raiders

Not enough recorded games yet.

NENew England Patriots

Not enough recorded games yet.