2025 Week 1 · Final
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts, final 8–33
Pregame first read
MIA pass defense has the stronger league profile.
IND passing attack #26/32 · MIA pass defense #7/32 · 160 offense / 201 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- MIA -5
- Model total
- 49
- 80% range (IND margin)
- -18.7 to +14.2
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingDaniel JonesIND272 pass yds
- RushingJonathan TaylorIND71 rush yds
- ReceivingMichael PittmanIND80 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- IND passing attack#26/32MIA pass defense#7/32
- IND run game#15/32MIA run defense#7/32
- MIA passing attack#16/32IND pass defense#26/32
- MIA run game#26/32IND run defense#11/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
MIAMiami Dolphins
Not enough recorded games yet.
INDIndianapolis Colts
Not enough recorded games yet.