2025 Week 1 · Final

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, final 27–24

MINMINMinnesota Vikings27CHICHIChicago Bears24

Pregame first read

MIN run defense has the stronger league profile.

CHI run game #31/32 · MIN run defense #4/32 · 115 offense / 118 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: MIN -5
Model total: 45.5
80% range (CHI margin): -18.1 to +14.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingCaleb WilliamsCHI210 pass yds
RushingJordan MasonMIN68 rush yds
ReceivingDJ MooreCHI68 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

CHI passing attack#25/32MIN pass defense#14/32
CHI run game#31/32MIN run defense#4/32
MIN passing attack#28/32CHI pass defense#25/32
MIN run game#22/32CHI run defense#20/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MINMinnesota Vikings

Not enough recorded games yet.

CHIChicago Bears

Not enough recorded games yet.