2025 Week 1 · Final
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets, final 34–32
Pregame first read
NYJ passing attack has the stronger league profile.
NYJ passing attack #11/32 · PIT pass defense #31/32 · 195 offense / 169 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- PK
- Model total
- 47.5
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -13.8 to +19.1
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingAaron RodgersPIT244 pass yds
- RushingBreece HallNYJ107 rush yds
- ReceivingGarrett WilsonNYJ95 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#11/32PIT pass defense#31/32
- NYJ run game#12/32PIT run defense#19/32
- PIT passing attack#30/32NYJ pass defense#27/32
- PIT run game#22/32NYJ run defense#13/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
PITPittsburgh Steelers
Not enough recorded games yet.
NYJNew York Jets
Not enough recorded games yet.