2025 Week 1 · Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, final 23–20

TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers23ATLATLAtlanta Falcons20

Pregame first read

TB passing attack has the stronger league profile.

TB passing attack #1/32 · ATL pass defense #20/32 · 161 offense / 192 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: TB -9
Model total: 47.5
80% range (ATL margin): -22.4 to +10.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingMichael Penix Jr.ATL298 pass yds
RushingBaker MayfieldTB39 rush yds
ReceivingBijan RobinsonATL100 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

ATL passing attack#20/32TB pass defense#11/32
ATL run game#3/32TB run defense#1/32
TB passing attack#1/32ATL pass defense#20/32
TB run game#9/32ATL run defense#22/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

Not enough recorded games yet.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

Not enough recorded games yet.