AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 10 · Final

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts, final 25–31

ATLATLAtlanta Falcons25INDINDIndianapolis Colts31

Pregame first read

IND run game has the stronger league profile.

IND run game #1/32 · ATL run defense #24/32 · 108 offense / 150 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
IND -7.5
Model total
47
80% range (IND margin)
-5.9 to +27.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • IND passing attack#12/32ATL pass defense#12/32
  • IND run game#1/32ATL run defense#24/32
  • ATL passing attack#18/32IND pass defense#8/32
  • ATL run game#21/32IND run defense#15/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

INDIndianapolis Colts