AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 10 · Final

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins, final 13–30

BUFBUFBuffalo Bills13MIAMIAMiami Dolphins30

Pregame first read

BUF pass defense has the stronger league profile.

MIA passing attack #26/32 · BUF pass defense #4/32 · 178 offense / 168 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -6.5
Model total
49
80% range (MIA margin)
-19.9 to +13.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#26/32BUF pass defense#4/32
  • MIA run game#26/32BUF run defense#23/32
  • BUF passing attack#7/32MIA pass defense#20/32
  • BUF run game#4/32MIA run defense#14/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

MIAMiami Dolphins