AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 10 · Final

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, final 29–36

JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars29HOUHOUHouston Texans36

Pregame first read

HOU pass defense has the stronger league profile.

JAX passing attack #24/32 · HOU pass defense #1/32 · 197 offense / 156 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -3.5
Model total
40.5
80% range (HOU margin)
-9.9 to +23.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#8/32JAX pass defense#27/32
  • HOU run game#22/32JAX run defense#10/32
  • JAX passing attack#24/32HOU pass defense#1/32
  • JAX run game#6/32HOU run defense#8/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

HOUHouston Texans