AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 10 · Final

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 28–23

NENENew England Patriots28TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers23

Pregame first read

NE run defense has the stronger league profile.

TB run game #24/32 · NE run defense #9/32 · 115 offense / 96 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -3.5
Model total
47
80% range (TB margin)
-16.8 to +16.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TB passing attack#19/32NE pass defense#5/32
  • TB run game#24/32NE run defense#9/32
  • NE passing attack#5/32TB pass defense#7/32
  • NE run game#19/32TB run defense#5/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers