AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 11 · Final

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, final 30–27

CARCARCarolina Panthers30ATLATLAtlanta Falcons27

Pregame first read

ATL pass defense has the stronger league profile.

CAR passing attack #30/32 · ATL pass defense #13/32 · 139 offense / 154 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CAR -1
Model total
40.5
80% range (ATL margin)
-14.5 to +19.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#24/32CAR pass defense#28/32
  • ATL run game#20/32CAR run defense#14/32
  • CAR passing attack#30/32ATL pass defense#13/32
  • CAR run game#19/32ATL run defense#27/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CARCarolina Panthers

ATLAtlanta Falcons