AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 11 · Final

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, final 19–17

CHICHIChicago Bears19MINMINMinnesota Vikings17

Pregame first read

CHI run defense has the stronger league profile.

MIN run game #29/32 · CHI run defense #9/32 · 99 offense / 126 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -0.5
Model total
50
80% range (MIN margin)
-14.2 to +19.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIN passing attack#25/32CHI pass defense#23/32
  • MIN run game#29/32CHI run defense#9/32
  • CHI passing attack#13/32MIN pass defense#29/32
  • CHI run game#2/32MIN run defense#13/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CHIChicago Bears

MINMinnesota Vikings