2025 Week 11 · Final
Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders, final 33–16
Pregame first read
DAL run game has the stronger league profile.
DAL run game #15/32 · LV run defense #25/32 · 125 offense / 146 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- DAL -5
- Model total
- 51.5
- 80% range (LV margin)
- -18.3 to +15.0
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingDak PrescottDAL268 pass yds
- RushingJavonte WilliamsDAL93 rush yds
- ReceivingGeorge PickensDAL144 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LV passing attack#27/32DAL pass defense#20/32
- LV run game#32/32DAL run defense#28/32
- DAL passing attack#8/32LV pass defense#17/32
- DAL run game#15/32LV run defense#25/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
DALDallas Cowboys
- Dak PrescottQB · 9 games258pass yds/g
- Javonte WilliamsRB · 9 games79.6rush yds/g
- CeeDee LambWR · 5 games98.2rec yds/g
- George PickensWR · 9 games84.9rec yds/g
LVLas Vegas Raiders
- Geno SmithQB · 9 games205pass yds/g
- Ashton JeantyRB · 9 games60.8rush yds/g
- Brock BowersTE · 6 games63.8rec yds/g
- Tre TuckerWR · 9 games50.6rec yds/g