AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 11 · Final

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles, final 9–16

DETDETDetroit Lions9PHIPHIPhiladelphia Eagles16

Pregame first read

DET run game has the stronger league profile.

DET run game #8/32 · PHI run defense #21/32 · 139 offense / 135 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DET -4.5
Model total
50.5
80% range (PHI margin)
-18.3 to +15.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • PHI passing attack#6/32DET pass defense#5/32
  • PHI run game#24/32DET run defense#25/32
  • DET passing attack#4/32PHI pass defense#15/32
  • DET run game#8/32PHI run defense#21/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DETDetroit Lions

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles