AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 11 · Final

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, final 16–13

HOUHOUHouston Texans16TENTENTennessee Titans13

Pregame first read

HOU pass defense has the stronger league profile.

TEN passing attack #29/32 · HOU pass defense #1/32 · 189 offense / 158 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -11
Model total
43
80% range (TEN margin)
-24.7 to +8.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TEN passing attack#29/32HOU pass defense#1/32
  • TEN run game#30/32HOU run defense#5/32
  • HOU passing attack#14/32TEN pass defense#26/32
  • HOU run game#25/32TEN run defense#15/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

HOUHouston Texans

TENTennessee Titans