AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 11 · Final

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, final 19–22

KCKCKansas City Chiefs19DENDENDenver Broncos22

Pregame first read

KC pass defense has the stronger league profile.

DEN passing attack #19/32 · KC pass defense #10/32 · 183 offense / 138 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
KC -1.5
Model total
41.5
80% range (DEN margin)
-15.3 to +18.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#19/32KC pass defense#10/32
  • DEN run game#10/32KC run defense#11/32
  • KC passing attack#3/32DEN pass defense#3/32
  • KC run game#5/32DEN run defense#6/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

DENDenver Broncos