AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 11 · Final

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 6–35

LACLACLos Angeles Chargers6JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars35

Pregame first read

LAC pass defense has the stronger league profile.

JAX passing attack #26/32 · LAC pass defense #4/32 · 195 offense / 165 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
LAC -3
Model total
47
80% range (JAX margin)
-16.8 to +16.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#26/32LAC pass defense#4/32
  • JAX run game#6/32LAC run defense#17/32
  • LAC passing attack#15/32JAX pass defense#27/32
  • LAC run game#7/32JAX run defense#16/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LACLos Angeles Chargers

JAXJacksonville Jaguars