AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 11 · Final

New York Jets at New England Patriots, final 14–27

NYJNYJNew York Jets14NENENew England Patriots27

Pregame first read

NE pass defense has the stronger league profile.

NYJ passing attack #27/32 · NE pass defense #3/32 · 165 offense / 187 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -7.5
Model total
46
80% range (NE margin)
-6.2 to +27.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • NE passing attack#3/32NYJ pass defense#19/32
  • NE run game#15/32NYJ run defense#27/32
  • NYJ passing attack#27/32NE pass defense#3/32
  • NYJ run game#23/32NE run defense#15/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NYJNew York Jets

NENew England Patriots