AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 11 · Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills, final 32–44

TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers32BUFBUFBuffalo Bills44

Pregame first read

BUF pass defense has the stronger league profile.

TB passing attack #17/32 · BUF pass defense #11/32 · 186 offense / 158 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -2.5
Model total
46.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-11.2 to +22.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#10/32TB pass defense#7/32
  • BUF run game#12/32TB run defense#12/32
  • TB passing attack#17/32BUF pass defense#11/32
  • TB run game#22/32BUF run defense#23/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

BUFBuffalo Bills