AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 11 · Final

Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins, final 13–16

WASWASWashington Commanders13MIAMIAMiami Dolphins16

Pregame first read

MIA run defense has the stronger league profile.

WAS run game #26/32 · MIA run defense #2/32 · 141 offense / 124 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIA -3
Model total
50
80% range (MIA margin)
-10.6 to +23.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#23/32WAS pass defense#32/32
  • MIA run game#15/32WAS run defense#28/32
  • WAS passing attack#21/32MIA pass defense#24/32
  • WAS run game#26/32MIA run defense#2/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

WASWashington Commanders

MIAMiami Dolphins