AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 12 · Final

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, final 24–10

ATLATLAtlanta Falcons24NONONew Orleans Saints10

Pregame first read

NO run defense has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #24/32 · NO run defense #8/32 · 108 offense / 158 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
ATL -1.5
Model total
43
80% range (NO margin)
-15.0 to +18.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • NO passing attack#27/32ATL pass defense#25/32
  • NO run game#31/32ATL run defense#27/32
  • ATL passing attack#20/32NO pass defense#26/32
  • ATL run game#24/32NO run defense#8/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

NONew Orleans Saints