AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 12 · Final

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, final 19–23

BUFBUFBuffalo Bills19HOUHOUHouston Texans23

Pregame first read

BUF pass defense has the stronger league profile.

HOU passing attack #16/32 · BUF pass defense #10/32 · 230 offense / 155 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -1.5
Model total
45
80% range (HOU margin)
-12.1 to +21.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#16/32BUF pass defense#10/32
  • HOU run game#29/32BUF run defense#28/32
  • BUF passing attack#6/32HOU pass defense#4/32
  • BUF run game#7/32HOU run defense#4/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

HOUHouston Texans