2025 Week 12 · Final
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers, final 9–20
Pregame first read
SF passing attack has the stronger league profile.
SF passing attack #4/32 · CAR pass defense #26/32 · 156 offense / 163 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- SF -3
- Model total
- 46.5
- 80% range (SF margin)
- -9.9 to +22.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingBrock PurdySF193 pass yds
- RushingChristian McCaffreySF89 rush yds
- ReceivingGeorge KittleSF78 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- SF passing attack#4/32CAR pass defense#26/32
- SF run game#13/32CAR run defense#20/32
- CAR passing attack#23/32SF pass defense#30/32
- CAR run game#28/32SF run defense#24/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
CARCarolina Panthers
- Bryce YoungQB · 10 games196pass yds/g
- Rico DowdleRB · 11 games75.7rush yds/g
- Tetairoa McMillanWR · 11 games68rec yds/g
- Xavier LegetteWR · 9 games29.3rec yds/g
SFSan Francisco 49ers
- Brock PurdyQB · 3 games262pass yds/g
- Christian McCaffreyRB · 11 games64.3rush yds/g
- Ricky PearsallWR · 5 games65.4rec yds/g
- Kendrick BourneWR · 9 games53.6rec yds/g