2025 Week 12 · Final
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, final 20–23
Pregame first read
KC passing attack has the stronger league profile.
KC passing attack #1/32 · IND pass defense #14/32 · 192 offense / 215 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- IND -0.5
- Model total
- 48.5
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -13.8 to +19.3
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingPatrick MahomesKC352 pass yds
- RushingKareem HuntKC104 rush yds
- ReceivingRashee RiceKC141 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#1/32IND pass defense#14/32
- KC run game#12/32IND run defense#21/32
- IND passing attack#14/32KC pass defense#18/32
- IND run game#1/32KC run defense#5/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
INDIndianapolis Colts
- Daniel JonesQB · 10 games266pass yds/g
- Jonathan TaylorRB · 10 games114rush yds/g
- Alec PierceWR · 8 games73.1rec yds/g
- Tyler WarrenTE · 10 games61.7rec yds/g
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 10 games263pass yds/g
- Isiah PachecoRB · 8 games41.1rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 4 games63.3rec yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 10 games63.1rec yds/g