AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 12 · Final

Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals, final 27–24

JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars27ARIARIArizona Cardinals24

Pregame first read

JAX run defense has the stronger league profile.

ARI run game #27/32 · JAX run defense #6/32 · 117 offense / 106 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -3
Model total
48
80% range (ARI margin)
-16.2 to +16.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ARI passing attack#16/32JAX pass defense#21/32
  • ARI run game#27/32JAX run defense#6/32
  • JAX passing attack#24/32ARI pass defense#22/32
  • JAX run game#7/32ARI run defense#26/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

ARIArizona Cardinals