AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 12 · Final

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals, final 26–20

NENENew England Patriots26CINCINCincinnati Bengals20

Pregame first read

NE passing attack has the stronger league profile.

NE passing attack #2/32 · CIN pass defense #31/32 · 160 offense / 166 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -13
Model total
52.5
80% range (CIN margin)
-26.2 to +6.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CIN passing attack#10/32NE pass defense#2/32
  • CIN run game#2/32NE run defense#22/32
  • NE passing attack#2/32CIN pass defense#31/32
  • NE run game#14/32CIN run defense#31/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

CINCincinnati Bengals