AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 12 · Final

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears, final 28–31

PITPITPittsburgh Steelers28CHICHIChicago Bears31

Pregame first read

CHI run game has the stronger league profile.

CHI run game #3/32 · PIT run defense #29/32 · 163 offense / 116 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
PK
Model total
47.5
80% range (CHI margin)
-13.2 to +19.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#11/32PIT pass defense#16/32
  • CHI run game#3/32PIT run defense#29/32
  • PIT passing attack#18/32CHI pass defense#15/32
  • PIT run game#17/32CHI run defense#20/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

PITPittsburgh Steelers

CHIChicago Bears