2025 Week 13 · Final
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets, final 24–27
Pregame first read
ATL pass defense has the stronger league profile.
NYJ passing attack #22/32 · ATL pass defense #17/32 · 147 offense / 199 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- ATL -2
- Model total
- 44.5
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -15.3 to +17.2
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingKirk CousinsATL234 pass yds
- RushingBijan RobinsonATL142 rush yds
- ReceivingAdonai MitchellNYJ102 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#22/32ATL pass defense#17/32
- NYJ run game#20/32ATL run defense#23/32
- ATL passing attack#18/32NYJ pass defense#20/32
- ATL run game#26/32NYJ run defense#22/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
ATLAtlanta Falcons
- Michael Penix Jr.QB · 9 games220pass yds/g
- Bijan RobinsonRB · 11 games77.5rush yds/g
- Drake LondonWR · 9 games90rec yds/g
- Kyle PittsTE · 11 games41.7rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Tyrod TaylorQB · 4 games150pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 11 games69.6rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 7 games56.4rec yds/g
- John Metchie IIIWR · 3 games37.7rec yds/g