AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 13 · Final

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, final 20–16

HOUHOUHouston Texans20INDINDIndianapolis Colts16

Pregame first read

IND run defense has the stronger league profile.

HOU run game #23/32 · IND run defense #15/32 · 134 offense / 132 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -0.5
Model total
46.5
80% range (IND margin)
-13.7 to +18.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • IND passing attack#13/32HOU pass defense#5/32
  • IND run game#1/32HOU run defense#5/32
  • HOU passing attack#12/32IND pass defense#14/32
  • HOU run game#23/32IND run defense#15/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

HOUHouston Texans

INDIndianapolis Colts