AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 13 · Final

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys, final 28–31

KCKCKansas City Chiefs28DALDALDallas Cowboys31

Pregame first read

KC run defense has the stronger league profile.

DAL run game #18/32 · KC run defense #6/32 · 137 offense / 103 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
KC -3
Model total
52
80% range (DAL margin)
-16.0 to +16.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DAL passing attack#10/32KC pass defense#19/32
  • DAL run game#18/32KC run defense#6/32
  • KC passing attack#4/32DAL pass defense#14/32
  • KC run game#19/32DAL run defense#28/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

DALDallas Cowboys