AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 13 · Final

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins, final 17–21

NONONew Orleans Saints17MIAMIAMiami Dolphins21

Pregame first read

MIA run defense has the stronger league profile.

NO run game #31/32 · MIA run defense #2/32 · 108 offense / 132 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIA -4
Model total
40.5
80% range (MIA margin)
-9.1 to +23.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#20/32NO pass defense#15/32
  • MIA run game#24/32NO run defense#12/32
  • NO passing attack#28/32MIA pass defense#22/32
  • NO run game#31/32MIA run defense#2/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NONew Orleans Saints

MIAMiami Dolphins